The Moran process on a random graph

Alan Frieze, Wesley Pegden

Published 2024-09-18Version 1

We study the fixation probability for two versions of the Moran process on the random graph $G_{n,p}$ at the threshold for connectivity. The Moran process models the spread of a mutant population in a network. Throughtout the process there are vertices of two types, mutants and non-mutants. Mutants have fitness $s$ and non-mutants have fitness 1. The process starts with a unique individual mutant located at the vertex $v_0$. In the Birth-Death version of the process a random vertex is chosen proportional to its fitness and then changes the type of a random neighbor to its own. The process continues until the set of mutants $X$ is empty or $[n]$. In the Death-Birth version a uniform random vertex is chosen and then takes the type of a random neighbor, chosen according to fitness. The process again continues until the set of mutants $X$ is empty or $[n]$. The {\em fixation probability} is the probability that the process ends with $X=\emptyset$. We give asymptotically correct estimates of the fixation probability that depend on degree of $v_0$ and its neighbors.,