The Phase Dynamics of Earthquakes: Implications for Forecasting in Southern California

Kristy F. Tiampo, John B. Rundle, Seth McGinnis, Susanna Gross, William Klein

Published 2001-02-02Version 1

We analyze the space-time patterns of earthquake occurrence in southern California using a new method that treats earthquakes as a phase dynamical system. The system state vector is used to obtain a probability measure for current and future earthquake occurrence. Thousands of statistical tests indicate the method has considerable forecast skill. We emphasize that the method is not a model, and there are no unconstrained or free parameters to be determined by fits to training data sets.