Financial Market Dynamics

Fredrick Michael, M. D. Johnson

Published 2001-08-01Version 1

Distributions derived from non-extensive Tsallis statistics are closely connected with dynamics described by a nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation. The combination shows promise in describing stochastic processes with power-law distributions and superdiffusive dynamics. We investigate intra-day price changes in the S&P500 stock index within this framework by direct analysis and by simulation. We find that the power-law tails of the distributions, and the index's anomalously diffusing dynamics, are very accurately described by this approach. Our results show good agreement between market data, Fokker-Planck dynamics, and simulation. Thus the combination of the Tsallis non-extensive entropy and the nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation unites in a very natural way the power-law tails of the distributions and their superdiffusive dynamics.