Statistical and Dynamical Study of Disease Propagation in a Small World Network

Nouredine Zekri, Jean-Pierre Clerc

Published 2001-07-27, updated 2003-05-27Version 3

We study numerically statistical properties and dynamical disease propagation using a percolation model on a one dimensional small world network. The parameters chosen correspond to a realistic network of school age children. We found that percolation threshold decreases as a power law as the short cut fluctuations increase. We found also the number of infected sites grows exponentially with time and its rate depends logarithmically on the density of susceptibles. This behavior provides an interesting way to estimate the serology for a given population from the measurement of the disease growing rate during an epidemic phase. We have also examined the case in which the infection probability of nearest neighbors is different from that of short cuts. We found a double diffusion behavior with a slower diffusion between the characteristic times.