Solar Cycles: Can They Be Predicted?

Floe Foxon

Published 2025-02-03Version 1

The solar magnetic field, thought to be generated by the motion of plasma within the Sun, alternates on the order of 11-year cycles and is incompletely understood. Industries rely on accurate forecasts of solar activity, but can solar cycles be predicted? And how well did predictions perform for the current cycle? The answer is less-than-stellar... Of more than 100 predictions, most underestimated the amplitude (peak sunspot number) of cycle 25, some massively so. Fewer predictions were made for the timing of solar maximum, but timing predictions seem to have performed better than amplitude predictions. Reasons for inaccurate prediction are suggested, and perspectives are given on how future studies might improve upon the extant literature.