Quasistationarity and extinction for population processes

Damian Clancy

Published 2024-12-10Version 1

We consider stochastic population processes that are almost surely absorbed at the origin within finite time. Our interest is in the quasistationary distribution, $\boldsymbol{u}$, and the expected time, $\tau$, from quasistationarity to extinction, both of which we study via WKB approximation. This approach involves solving a Hamilton-Jacobi partial differential equation specific to the model. We provide conditions under which analytical solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation is possible, and give the solution. This provides a first approximation to both $\boldsymbol{u}$ and $\tau$. We provide further conditions under which a corresponding `transport equation' may be solved, leading to an improved approximation of $\boldsymbol{u}$. For multitype birth and death processes, we then consider an alternative approximation for $\boldsymbol{u}$ that is valid close to the origin, provide conditions under which the elements of this alternative approximation may be found explicitly, and hence derive an improved approximation for $\tau$. We illustrate our results in a number of applications.