Efficient weighted-ensemble network simulations of the SIS model of epidemics

Elad Korngut, Ohad Vilk, Michael Assaf

Published 2024-06-05Version 1

The presence of erratic or unstable paths in standard kinetic Monte Carlo simulations significantly undermines the accurate simulation and sampling of transition pathways. While typically reliable methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm, are employed to simulate such paths, they encounter challenges in efficiently identifying rare events due to their sequential nature and reliance on exact Monte Carlo sampling. In contrast, the weighted ensemble method effectively samples rare events and accelerates the exploration of complex reaction pathways by distributing computational resources among multiple replicas, where each replica is assigned a weight reflecting its importance, and evolves independently from the others. Here, we implement the highly efficient and robust weighted ensemble method to model susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) dynamics on large heterogeneous population networks. In particular, we explore the interplay between stochasticity and contact heterogeneity which gives rise to large fluctuations, leading to extinction (spontaneous clearance of infection). By studying a wide variety of networks characterized by fat-tailed degree distributions, we are able to compute the mean time to extinction as function of the various network and epidemic parameters. Importantly, this method allows exploring previously-inaccessible parameter regimes.