Explicit formula of boundary crossing probabilities for continuous local martingales to constant boundary

Yoann Potiron

Published 2023-12-01Version 1

An explicit formula for the probability that a continuous local martingale crosses a one or two-sided random constant boundary in a finite time interval is derived. We obtain that the boundary crossing probability of a continuous local martingale to a constant boundary is equal to the boundary crossing probability of a standard Wiener process to a constant boundary up to a time change of quadratic variation value. This relies on the constancy of the boundary and the Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz theorem for continuous local martingale. The main idea of the proof is the scale invariant property of the time-changed Wiener process and thus the scale invariant property of the first-passage time.