MEXIT: Maximal un-coupling times for Markov processes

P. A. Ernst, W. S. Kendall, G. O. Roberts, J. S. Rosenthal

Published 2017-02-13Version 1

Classical coupling constructions arrange for copies of the \emph{same} Markov process started at two \emph{different} initial states to become equal as soon as possible. In this paper, we consider an alternative coupling framework in which one seeks to arrange for two \emph{different} Markov processes to remain equal for as long as possible, when started in the \emph{same} state. We refer to this "un-coupling" or "maximal agreement" construction as \emph{MEXIT}, standing for "maximal exit" time. After highlighting the importance of un-coupling arguments in a few key statistical and probabilistic settings, we develop an explicit MEXIT construction for Markov chains in discrete time with countable state-space. This construction is generalized to random processes on general state-space running in continuous time, and then exemplified by discussion of MEXIT for Brownian motions with two different constant drifts.