Optimal Sequential Selection of a Unimodal Subsequence of a Random Sequence

Alessandro Arlotto, J. Michael Steele

Published 2011-08-12, updated 2011-09-24Version 2

We consider the problem of selecting sequentially a unimodal subsequence from a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, and we find that a person doing optimal sequential selection does within a factor of the square root of two as well as a prophet who knows all of the random observations in advance of any selections. Our analysis applies in fact to selections of subsequences that have d+1 monotone blocks, and, by including the case d=0, our analysis also covers monotone subsequences.