Effects of diffusion rates on epidemic spreads in metapopulation networks

Naoki Masuda

Published 2010-04-14, updated 2010-08-20Version 2

It is often useful to represent the infectious dynamics of mobile agents by metapopulation models. In such a model, metapopulations form a static network, and individuals migrate from one metapopulation to another. It is known that heterogeneous degree distributions of metapopulation networks decrease the epidemic threshold above which epidemic spreads can occur. We investigate the combined effect of heterogeneous degree distributions and diffusion on epidemics in metapopulation networks. We show that for arbitrary heterogeneous networks, diffusion suppresses epidemics in the sense of an increase in the epidemic threshold. On the other hand, some diffusion rates are needed to elicit epidemic spreads on a global scale. As a result of these opposing effects of diffusion, epidemic spreading near the epidemic threshold is the most pronounced at an intermediate diffusion rate. The result that diffusion can suppress epidemics contrasts with that for diffusive SIS dynamics and its variants when individuals are fixed at nodes on static networks.