{
  "id": "2105.13588",
  "version": "v1",
  "published": "2021-05-28T05:10:58.000Z",
  "updated": "2021-05-28T05:10:58.000Z",
  "title": "Long-term statistics of pulsar glitches due to history-dependent avalanches",
  "authors": [
    "Julian B. Carlin",
    "Andrew Melatos"
  ],
  "comment": "18 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ",
  "categories": [
    "astro-ph.HE"
  ],
  "abstract": "Stress accumulation-relaxation meta-models of pulsar glitches make precise, microphysics-agnostic predictions of long-term glitch statistics, which can be falsified by existing and future timing data. Previous meta-models assume that glitches are triggered by an avalanche process, e.g. involving superfluid vortices, and that the probability density function (PDF) of the avalanche sizes is history-independent and specified exogenously. Here a recipe is proposed to generate the avalanche sizes endogenously in a history-dependent manner, by tracking the thresholds of occupied vortex pinning sites as a function of time. Vortices unpin spasmodically from sites with thresholds below a global, time-dependent stress and repin at sites with thresholds above the global stress, imbuing the system with long-term memory. The meta-model predicts PDFs, auto- and cross-correlations for glitch sizes and waiting times, which are provisionally inconsistent with current observations, unlike some previous meta-models (e.g. state dependent Poisson process), whose predictions are consistent. The theoretical implications are intriguing, albeit uncertain, because history-dependent avalanches embody faithfully the popular, idealized understanding in the literature of how vortex unpinning operates as a driven, stochastic process. The meta-model predicts aftershocks, which occur with larger than average sizes and longer than average waiting times after the largest, system-resetting glitches. This prediction will be tested, once more data are generated by the next generation of pulsar timing campaigns.",
  "revisions": [
    {
      "version": "v1",
      "updated": "2021-05-28T05:10:58.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "analyses": {
    "keywords": [
      "pulsar glitches",
      "long-term statistics",
      "state dependent poisson process",
      "avalanche sizes",
      "waiting times"
    ],
    "note": {
      "typesetting": "TeX",
      "pages": 18,
      "language": "en",
      "license": "arXiv",
      "status": "editable"
    }
  }
}