{
  "id": "2101.12206",
  "version": "v1",
  "published": "2021-01-25T23:04:28.000Z",
  "updated": "2021-01-25T23:04:28.000Z",
  "title": "KMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis",
  "authors": [
    "Yun Hak Kim",
    "Sun-Ju Chung",
    "Jennifer C. Yee",
    "A. Udalski",
    "Ian A. Bond",
    "Youn Kil Jung",
    "Andrew Gould",
    "Michael D. Albrow",
    "Cheongho Han",
    "Kyu-Ha Hwang",
    "Yoon-Hyun Ryu",
    "In-gu Shin",
    "Yossi Shvartzvald",
    "Weicheng Zang",
    "Sang-Mok Cha",
    "Dong-Jin Kim",
    "Hyoun-Woo Kim",
    "Seung-Lee Kim",
    "Chung-Uk Lee",
    "Dong-Joo Lee",
    "Yongseok Lee",
    "Byeong-Gon Park",
    "Richard W. Pogge",
    "Radek Poleski",
    "Przemek Mróz",
    "Jan Skowron",
    "Michal K. Szymański",
    "Pawel Pietrukowicz",
    "Szymon Kozłowski",
    "Krzysztof Ulaczyk",
    "Krzysztof A. Rybicki",
    "Patryk Iwanek",
    "Marcin Wrona",
    "Mariusz Gromadzki",
    "Fumio Abe",
    "Richard Barry",
    "David P. Bennett",
    "Aparna Bhattacharya",
    "Martin Donachie",
    "Hirosane Fujii",
    "Yoshitaka Itow",
    "Yuki Hirao",
    "Rintaro Kirikawa",
    "Iona Kondo",
    "Naoki Koshimoto",
    "Yutaka Matsubara",
    "Yasushi Muraki",
    "Shota Miyazaki",
    "Clément Ranc",
    "Nicholas J. Rattenbury",
    "Yuki Satoh",
    "Hikaru Shoji",
    "Daisuke Suzuki",
    "Paul J. Tristram",
    "Yuzuru Tanaka",
    "Tsubasa Yamawaki",
    "Atsunori Yonehara"
  ],
  "comment": "23pages, 7 figures",
  "categories": [
    "astro-ph.EP",
    "astro-ph.GA",
    "astro-ph.IM",
    "astro-ph.SR"
  ],
  "abstract": "We show that the perturbation at the peak of the light curve of microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0371 is explained by a model with a mass ratio between the host star and planet of $q \\sim 0.08$. Due to the short event duration ($t_{\\rm E} \\sim 6.5\\ $ days), the secondary object in this system could potentially be a massive giant planet. A Bayesian analysis shows that the system most likely consists of a host star with a mass $M_{\\rm h} = 0.09^{+0.14}_{-0.05}M_{\\odot}$ and a massive giant planet with a mass $M_{\\rm p} = 7.70^{+11.34}_{-3.90}M_{\\rm Jup}$. However, the interpretation of the secondary as a planet (i.e., as having $M_{\\rm p} < 13 M_{\\rm Jup}$) rests entirely on the Bayesian analysis. Motivated by this event, we conduct an investigation to determine which constraints meaningfully affect Bayesian analyses for microlensing events. We find that the masses inferred from such a Bayesian analysis are determined almost entirely by the measured value of $\\theta_{\\rm E}$ and are relatively insensitive to other factors such as the direction of the event $(\\ell, b)$, the lens-source relative proper motion $\\mu_{\\rm rel}$, or the specific Galactic model prior.",
  "revisions": [
    {
      "version": "v1",
      "updated": "2021-01-25T23:04:28.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "analyses": {
    "keywords": [
      "bayesian analysis",
      "massive giant planet",
      "host star",
      "constraints meaningfully affect bayesian analyses",
      "specific galactic model prior"
    ],
    "note": {
      "typesetting": "TeX",
      "pages": 23,
      "language": "en",
      "license": "arXiv",
      "status": "editable"
    }
  }
}