{
  "id": "1910.10383",
  "version": "v1",
  "published": "2019-10-23T06:43:30.000Z",
  "updated": "2019-10-23T06:43:30.000Z",
  "title": "Schwabe, Gleissberg, Suess-de Vries: Towards a consistent model of planetary synchronization of solar cycles",
  "authors": [
    "F. Stefani",
    "A. Giesecke",
    "M. Seilmayer",
    "R. Stepanov",
    "T. Weier"
  ],
  "comment": "10 pages, 4 figures",
  "categories": [
    "astro-ph.SR",
    "physics.plasm-ph"
  ],
  "abstract": "Aiming at a consistent planetary synchronization model of both short-term and long-term solar cycles, we start with an analysis of Schove's historical data of cycle maxima. Their deviations (residuals) from the average cycle duration of 11.07 years show a high degree of regularity, comprising a dominant 200-year period (Suess-de Vries cycle), and a few periods around 100 years (Gleissberg cycle). Encouraged by their robustness, we support previous forecasts of an upcoming grand minimum in the 21st century. To explain the long-term cycles, we enhance our tidally synchronized solar dynamo model by a modulation of the field storage capacity of the tachocline with the orbital angular momentum of the Sun, which is dominated by the 19.86-year periodicity of the Jupiter-Saturn synodes. This modulation of the 22.14 years Hale cycle leads to a 193-year beat period of dynamo activity which is indeed close to the Suess-de Vries cycle. For stronger dynamo modulation, the model produces additional peaks at typical Gleissberg frequencies, which seem to be explainable by the non-linearities of the basic beat process, leading to a bi-modality of the Schwabe cycle. However, a complementary role of beat periods between the Schwabe cycle and the Jupiter-Uranus/Neptune synodic cycles cannot be completely excluded.",
  "revisions": [
    {
      "version": "v1",
      "updated": "2019-10-23T06:43:30.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "analyses": {
    "keywords": [
      "solar cycles",
      "consistent model",
      "synchronized solar dynamo model",
      "gleissberg",
      "suess-de vries cycle"
    ],
    "note": {
      "typesetting": "TeX",
      "pages": 10,
      "language": "en",
      "license": "arXiv",
      "status": "editable"
    }
  }
}