{
  "id": "0903.1336",
  "version": "v1",
  "published": "2009-03-07T11:01:53.000Z",
  "updated": "2009-03-07T11:01:53.000Z",
  "title": "Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24",
  "authors": [
    "J. Javaraiah"
  ],
  "comment": "21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008)",
  "journal": "Solar Phys.252:419-439,2008",
  "doi": "10.1007/s11207-008-9269-6",
  "categories": [
    "astro-ph.SR"
  ],
  "abstract": "Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.",
  "revisions": [
    {
      "version": "v1",
      "updated": "2009-03-07T11:01:53.000Z"
    }
  ],
  "analyses": {
    "keywords": [
      "north-south asymmetry",
      "solar cycle",
      "deg latitude interval",
      "optical observing network sunspot",
      "observing network sunspot group data"
    ],
    "tags": [
      "journal article"
    ],
    "publication": {
      "journal": "Solar Physics",
      "year": 2008,
      "month": "Nov",
      "volume": 252,
      "number": 2,
      "pages": 419
    },
    "note": {
      "typesetting": "TeX",
      "pages": 21,
      "language": "en",
      "license": "arXiv",
      "status": "editable",
      "inspire": 814956,
      "adsabs": "2008SoPh..252..419J"
    }
  }
}